Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.581632 0.674533 0.774313 0.889084 1.017070 1.155024 1.314578
2025-03-09 0.427942 0.545548 0.681181 0.847798 1.045514 1.271167 1.546616
2025-03-16 0.313272 0.439699 0.596225 0.801098 1.058744 1.368456 1.764995
2025-03-23 0.246035 0.379839 0.557302 0.803840 1.130749 1.542265 2.091443
2025-03-30 0.176612 0.303676 0.485536 0.754830 1.132141 1.629852 2.321964
2025-04-06 0.130312 0.250466 0.436181 0.728851 1.160904 1.756020 2.615018
2025-04-13 0.094027 0.203909 0.388113 0.697454 1.178397 1.869210 2.902303
2025-04-20 0.072165 0.176009 0.364014 0.698680 1.243600 2.055459 3.307024
2025-04-27 0.053692 0.148827 0.335688 0.688778 1.290844 2.220521 3.696259
2025-05-04 0.041208 0.129768 0.317996 0.694147 1.363168 2.429928 4.167614
2025-05-11 0.031084 0.112178 0.299220 0.694596 1.427488 2.632750 4.644827
2025-05-18 0.021107 0.090122 0.265572 0.661194 1.429332 2.736243 4.976919
2025-05-25 0.013274 0.069628 0.230176 0.619496 1.414721 2.817944 5.292391
2025-06-01 0.009151 0.058245 0.213128 0.612984 1.465189 3.014698 5.810142
2025-06-08 0.005945 0.047353 0.193545 0.596921 1.495307 3.179350 6.287918
2025-06-15 0.004396 0.042382 0.189258 0.616134 1.599339 3.485087 7.025767
2025-06-22 0.002596 0.033338 0.168520 0.590303 1.606306 3.614483 7.469380
2025-06-29 0.001591 0.027324 0.155092 0.580275 1.645917 3.808118 8.038475
2025-07-06 0.000897 0.021797 0.140459 0.563328 1.667697 3.969227 8.559642
2025-07-13 0.000574 0.018940 0.135161 0.572123 1.749808 4.254184 9.321526
2025-07-20 0.000328 0.015842 0.126943 0.570135 1.806076 4.491734 10.009452
2025-07-27 0.000198 0.013826 0.122782 0.580199 1.893210 4.798380 10.843186
2025-08-03 0.000109 0.011843 0.117449 0.585159 1.968199 5.085092 11.653927